Bhubaneswar, (Reporterspen), April 15: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for the 2024 season (June to September), predicting it to be greater than 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
According to IMD reports, the seasonal rainfall is expected to reach 106% of the LPA, with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of monsoon rainfall for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm.
Current observations indicate moderate El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest a weakening trend towards neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early part of the monsoon season, followed by the likelihood of La Niña conditions developing in the latter half.
Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently observed over the Indian Ocean. However, climate model forecasts indicate the potential development of positive IOD conditions during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
